About

Alex Krogh-Grabbe

Alex believes that cities are complex and messy, but dense smart growth with strong alternative transportation infrastructure is the best medicine for climate change and for our unsustainable car dependence. He also believes that good policy balances input from many different perspectives, especially traditionally oppressed low-income communities and the local business community. Everyone’s perspective is valuable, even though it’s impossible for policy to please everyone all the time.

He lives and works in Providence, RI, to which he relocated in June 2014 from Amherst, MA. Upon completing his master’s degree from Tufts University in Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, Alex served as the founding Executive Director of the Amherst Business Improvement District. Since moving to Providence, Alex has immersed himself in his new city, managing a City Council campaign and organizing the Providence Symposium weekend. Alex’s expertise is in downtown revitalization, transportation policy, town-gown relations, and he has experience in graphic & web design, social media, event organizing, and data & spatial analysis.

In addition to his professional work optimizing complex urban systems, Alex is an avid contradancer and contradance organizer, and a former & occasional Ultimate Frisbee player & coach.

PVD bike_traffic

Providence residents want to walk and bike

Last night, Providence’s Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Commission (BPAC) held a public forum to establish priorities for the city’s vision for alternative transportation in 2015. More than forty members of the public were present, and about half of those offered recommendations. First, though, the forum was graced by the presence of Mayor Jorge Elorza, who delivered some introductory remarks and then remained present for a whole hour to hear the recommendations of the Providence residents who spoke. Below are my notes on what the Mayor and others said during the meeting.

Mayor Elorza’s remarks

  • It was an inauguration pledge of his to make Providence the most active city in New England. That means being bike- and pedestrian-friendly.
  • The Mayor referred to Bike to Work Week in May, and proclaimed that henceforth in Providence bike commuting would not be relegated to one week of the year, but instead every Friday will be a Bike to Work Day, and he will join residents in commuting by bike.
  • Providence is the perfect city for biking and walking.
  • He has been talking with department heads, and is charging them with integrating a complete streets design approach into their work.
  • He closed with two opportunities that the city will have in the next few months to take steps forward on bicycling and walking:
    1. As soon as the snow allows, Mayor Elorza will sign on to U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx’s Mayors’ Challenge for Safer People, Safer Streets. This challenge calls for mayors to:
      • Issue a public statement about the importance of bicycle and pedestrian safety
      • Form a local action team to advance safety and accessibility goals
      • Take a Complete Streets approach
      • Identify and address barriers to make streets safe and convenient for all road users, including people of all ages and abilities and those using assistive mobility devices
      • Gather and track biking and walking data
      • Use designs that are appropriate to the context of the street and its uses
      • Take advantage of opportunities to create and complete ped-bike networks through maintenance
      • Improve walking and biking safety laws and regulations
      • Educate and enforce proper road use behavior by all
    2. The League of American Bicyclists will have representatives in Providence on April 16th. They will conduct a survey to assess where Providence stands in relation to their Bicycle-Friendly Community standards, and make updated recommendations for how we can attain the next level of bicycle-friendliness. Here are the recommendations they made upon visiting in Fall 2013.

My recommendations

I wrote up a detailed report for BPAC based on those League recommendations, my own assessment of where we stand relative to the Bicycle-Friendly Community standards, new GIS spatial analysis, research on best practices around the country, and talking with members of the bicycle advocacy community in Providence. Below are those recommendations:

  1. In the Executive Order creating BPAC, section 3f states that BPAC will “perform special studies and projects as requested by the City on bicycle and pedestrian questions, including reviewing development plans and site plans which may have significant impact on bicycle and pedestrian transportation.” The street design process should be altered so that BPAC (or the planning department) must review all plans for bicycle & pedestrian impact before they are implemented.
  2. Update the Bike Providence plan with new priorities for improving bicycle infrastructure. See proposed prioritization below.
  3. Adopt the recommendations from the League of American Bicyclists as a work plan for BPAC and pursue a Bronze rating as a Bicycle-Friendly Community.
  4. Encourage the designation of existing staff member as Bicycle & Pedestrian Coordinator or the creation of a new position.
  5. Commend the Mayor for his visibility commuting by bike.
  6. Facilitate the creation of regular training sessions for
    • The public, regarding safe cycling
    • Planning & Public Works staff, on engineering bicycle infrastructure
    • Police Officers, on a “Share the Road” message and traffic law as it applies to bicyclists and motorists.
  7. Encourage the endorsement of NACTO guidelines by the City and the State.
  8. Invite RIDOT and Providence Public Works to be more involved in the Commission.
  9. Encourage Public Works and RIDOT to keep BPAC informed of street redesign project status to ensure Complete Streets features are integrated in a timely & cost effective way.

Infrastructure recommendations

example-of-buffered-bike-lanebetter-lanes

Generally, buffered two-way bike lanes on one side of the street are the best balance between safety, cost, and street width. When street width allows, vertical features should be added in the buffers to further protect the safety of people cycling.

Conventional striped bike lanes should be reserved for locations in which extremely low street width does not provide space for parked cars on both sides of the street, let alone a buffered bike lane. Neither sharrows nor wayfinding signage should be considered bike facilities by themselves; they serve merely to provide additional driver awareness on streets featuring dedicated space for people biking.

Some corridors are more in need of dedicated bicycle facilities than others. See this map for a visual of levels of cycling traffic shown by Strava and VHB apps. These recommendations are based on that data:

  1. Elmwood Ave and Smith Street are suggested in Bike Providence to receive striped bike lanes. These are both corridors that see high use, and the City should use protected bike lanes instead of conventional striping.
  2. Especially Charles Street due to its level of use, but also Douglas Ave, are also recommended for bike lanes in Bike Providence. That recommendation should be implemented, using buffered bike lanes or, if space demands, conventional striped lanes.
  3. North Main Street and Broad Street already see a lot of bicycle traffic. Due to high auto speeds and wide width, protected bike lanes should be created on these corridors.
  4. Downtown has a high level of bicycle use, but no striped bike lanes. Streets downtown seeing the most existing bicycle traffic are Weybosset Street, Washington Street, Dorrance Street, Sabin Street, Fountain Street, Exchange Street, and Exchange Terrace. These streets should be painted with buffered bike lanes.
  5. Cranston Street sees a high level of use for cycling despite its sometimes narrow width. For portions of the corridor where width allows, a protected of buffered bike lane should be created. In the narrowest portions south of the Armory, conventional striped lanes may be necessary.
  6. Olney Street is a primary east-west bicycle route across the East Side, due to its relatively shallow incline. A protected bike lane would be appropriate for this wide street.
  7. Allens Ave has a striped lane, but it is in poor condition. It should be replaced by a protected bike lane because width allows and driving speeds are high.
  8. Olneyville Square and Plainfield Ave toward Neutaconkanut Park are dangerous places for cyclists and yet have a high level of bicycle traffic. A striped bike lane or protected bike lane should be built to improve the safety of these users.
  9. Hope Street, Waterman Street, and Angell Street are important corridors through the East Side, and already see a high level of use for cycling. Buffered or protected bike lanes would be appropriate for street widths on all three streets.
  10. Westminster Street west of 95 sees a high level of bicycle traffic, and is an excellent candidate for a buffered bike lane.
  11. Point Street and Wickenden Street are used a lot by cyclists as paths between the East Side and West Side due to the gentle slope of Wickenden compared to the steep College Hill. Both streets would be strong candidates for a buffered bike lane.
  12. Manton Avenue runs through one of the poorest parts of the city, has high levels of bicycle traffic on it, and connects to the Woonasquatucket River off-road trail. It should be a priority for a buffered lane.

Recommendations from other Members of the Public

  • The Dean Street bridge over the highway is a particularly bad chokepoint for sidewalk snow removal and is particularly dangerous.
  • Prioritize pedestrians where they are.
  • There should be more bike parking in commercial districts.
  • There should be more bike racks at the Amtrak station [BPAC chair Eric Weis commented that in the forthcoming renovation of the train station, there will be more racks].
  • Especially the busiest streets should be ensured of sidewalk snow removal. Especially unsafe for people to walk in the street there.
  • There should be quarterly BPAC forums like this, timed to coincide with the Public Works design cycle.
  • Bill DeSantis, author of the Bike Providence plan for consultant VHB, agreed that the plan is due for updating.
  • National engineering standards such as AASHTO and MUTCD are rapidly changing, with updates dramatically improving design standards for bike and walking safety coming soon.
  • Frank LaTorre of the Downtown Improvement District asserted his organization’s desires to be part of making Providence more bike- and pedestrian-friendly. BPAC chair Eric Weis commended the DID’s “yellow jacket” workers for an excellent job keeping downtown sidewalks clear of snow.
  • Joelle Kanter of the Providence Foundation drew attention to
    1. the CityWalk proposal for connecting India Point Park and Roger Williams Park,
    2. another forum hosted by the Providence Foundation on Monday, March 23rd at 5:30pm on Exchange Terrace, and
    3. a need for cohesive pedestrian wayfinding signage throughout the city to replace and enhance current disjointed signage.
  • Another call for cleared sidewalks, with mention of having RIDOT clear sidewalks on bridges.
  • It is hard for residents to clear the hard-packed snow drifts created by plows which block sidewalks at intersections; perhaps it would be more reasonable to have a systematic approach to these locations.
  • While there is a maintenance contract recently established for the 25 busiest RIPTA stops, perhaps a plan could be created for maintenance of the 1000 busiest RIPTA stops.
  • There needs to be muscle behind walkability & snow removal.

[The mayor left at this point]

  • Reiteration of the especially bad Dean/Atwells intersection area.
  • Crossing the highways is especially tough.
  • Signals downtown are not very functional for people walking, also on the West Side. The city should create a plan to deal with obstacles such as these.
  • Bicycling and walking are part of the city’s sustainability, and should be included in policy in that area.
  • Bicycling and walking are “the sinews of connectivity” in the city.
  • Integration between RIDOT and the City is very important.
  • The train station needs work. The speaker’s bike had been vandalized or stolen at the train station on numerous occasions.
  • The walk from College Hill to the train station is not easy.
  • Snow is hard for families with kids.
  • The sidewalk network is only as strong as its weakest point; if one person hasn’t shoveled in front of their house, parents with young children have to go back home and drive instead.
  • “It will never be easy to own & drive a car in this city, and that’s okay, but it then must be easy to walk.”
  • Why are there no entrepreneurial kids out there doing snow removal? Perhaps there is concern about liability that the City can help alleviate.
  • Slower traffic makes a safer environment for everyone. Consider a 15-20mph speed limit citywide.
  • Overnight on-street parking for residents is great, but where do residential permit holders go in the case of a snow emergency parking ban? In Cambridge, MA, the speaker recalled designated commercial lots that became open to the public at such times.
  • While it is good the city lowered parking minimums in the new zoning code, parking minimums should be eliminated altogether.
  • We have a problem with too many surface parking lots in the city. They should be taxed to disincentivize use of property for commercial parking enterprises.
  • All parking in the city should be metered to distribute demand better.
  • Crosswalks are not always in places that make sense; they should be restriped in places that do. Residents may be able to provide good recommendations on the most logical places for them.
  • It is good that they mayor is encouraging sidewalk snow removal by residents and suggesting that fines may be issued for noncompliance. In North Providence, where the speaker lives, the mayor indicated that there would not be fines, and the speaker has noticed a significant difference in the number of sidewalks cleared in the two cities, approximately 2/3 clear in Providence and approximately 1/3 clear in North Providence.
  • RIDOT should clear bridge sidewalks.
  • Crosswalks should be close to RIPTA stops; too often they are not and that just doesn’t make sense.
  • The bike network is regional, so we should work with other cities to ensure that it is robust.
  • Enforcement of traffic rules is good for safety and should be encouraged.
  • Too often institutions encourage employees and students to drive by subsidizing free parking. The City should encourage its institutions to minimize this practice.
  • The most vulnerable road users should be prioritized in all streets policy.
  • Beyond merely bike racks, the train station renovation should incorporate bike cages.
  • It is important to consider access to grocery stores and other necessities when talking about car and bike usage. We should encourage the location of these facilities in such places that residents who don’t want to or can’t afford a car are able to access them.
  • Another comment about the danger of Dean Street, especially between Kinsley and Atwells.
  • The curve of Wickenden Street was also cited as being dangerous for people walking.
  • Another comment about the difficulty of crossing highways, reference to 95 as “the moat”.
  • “Gotta let a city breathe.” So there should be more porous connections over highways for people walking and bicycling.
  • BPAC Commissioner Jenn Steinfeld made the important point that most of the faces in the room that night were white, and that is often the case with the audience for this commission, despite perhaps a majority of carless households being made up of people of color. How can we change this? We have to hold ourselves accountable to address this misrepresentation. [Someone shouted from the audience “hold meetings outside of working hours!”]
  • Getting young people on bikes is a way to reach their parents who might not otherwise be interested.

And that was it! It lasted about an hour and a half, with the Mayor present for the first hour of that. Also in attendance were Director of Planning Bonnie Nickerson, Deputy Director of Planning Bob Azar, Acting Superintendent of Public Works Bill Bombard, and Director of Policy Sheila Dormody. The official list of recommendations was taken down at the meeting by the planning department’s Associate Director for Special Projects Martina Haggerty, who can be reached at mhaggerty@providenceri.com.

PVD bike_traffic

Where do people actually bike in Providence?

I have been excited recently by the heatmap published by the Strava app showing where its users go when tracking their trips. It’s beautiful, and it seems like great data for planning bike infrastructure. However, after a tip from a friend, I did some research and found that Strava users are not necessarily very representative of the cycling demographics or travel patterns of the general public.

  • Strava users are, in the words of another friend who is an avid user, “a group that is heavily skewed toward recreational, performance-oriented cyclists, although it should be noted that there is often a lot of overlap between commuter cyclists and recreational cyclists”
  • There are reports suggesting that Strava’s user base is approximately 90% men, which is substantially higher than the 65-75% of cyclists nationally who are men. Strava does not relase information about the age, nationality, or location of its user-base.
  • Most suggestively, when Oregon DOT bought Strava’s detailed data in the spring of 2014, they compared the Strava count of cyclists crossing Portland’s Hawthorne Bridge, a prominent commuter cyclist connection, to a physical counter’s tally. They found that only 2.5% of the actual trips across the bridge were reflected in the Strava data.

While these are important limitation to keep in mind, the data is still useful. In Providence, according to a Strava rep I contacted, the data is based on 1440 users making 10,835 trips, 30% of which were commuting. In Rhode Island as a whole, there are 5996 Strava users and 61,625 trips.

For comparison, the data generated by VHB for the 2013 Bike Providence plan used an app which has between 100 and 500 downloads on the Android store, suggesting a user base roughly between 250 and 1250 (iPhone’s market share in RI is 58% compared to Android’s 41%). The users of the VHB app, because of its singular purpose, were also an unbalanced sample of all users.

To increase the sample size of the data, I have used GIS to combine the Strava data (created May 2014) and the VHB data (March-May 2013) into one composite bike traffic metric for all Providence streets:

PVD bike_traffic

I would note that, though existing traffic patterns are an excellent aid in determining where new bike infrastructure should be created, providing reasonable access to the whole city is also an important consideration. For example, Smith Street only shows moderate existing bike traffic in these data sources, but installing a protected bike lane along that corridor would provide better access to a whole swath of north Providence that would otherwise be underserved by bike infrastructure. Similarly, Plainfield St and Hartford Ave in the Silver Lake & Hartford neighborhoods would provide important access to residents who are not currently along well-trafficked corridors.

One of my favorite aphorisms with regard to bike infrastructure is that it would be ridiculous to reject a proposal for a bridge because too few people swim across the river. Approach this existing traffic data with that in mind.

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It’s time to stop waiting for the bus in Rhode Island

This post originally published on Rhode Island Future.

I like RIPTA. Transit agencies struggle to provide direly needed transportation access to thousands of people, and they don’t get to take a day off if they’re not feeling up to it. I’ve seen some RIPTA staff in action, and they impress me. I’m also pumped about the redesigned Kennedy Plaza; for all the flak it gets, I think it’s an excellent thing for transit service in Rhode Island and a boon to rejuvenating downtown Providence.

But this is the 21st century.

In the 21st century, people don’t want to wait around in the cold for a bus, because they don’t have to. They have the internet, which can tell them, based on real-time location data, exactly when their bus is going to arrive. Or, maybe they live in an urban area that values its transit system enough to provide frequent enough service such that, even if you miss one bus, the next one will be along before your toes fall off from frostbite.

Unfortunately, neither of those things is true in Rhode Island.

Google Maps and other transit apps are still waiting for RIPTA to provide them with real-time data, instead relying on scheduled bus arrival times. When you’re standing out at a stop in the cold, and you have a meeting or interview you need to get to, what do you do with the statistic that a majority of buses arrive at each stop within 5 minutes of their scheduled time? Do you wait to see if the bus will come? Or do you walk over to the next transit corridor to maybe catch that bus? Or, more likely, you just don’t rely on the bus, because you don’t know whether it can get you there. When you can’t rely on the bus, it’s not a good alternative to car ownership for most people.

Or wait! Even if there’s some major technological, bureaucratic, budgetary, or other reason RIPTA can’t set up a process to format its data in the necessary fashion and provide a feed for Google and other apps (or even *gasp* citizen developers!) it doesn’t matter, right? There are a lot of bus lines; people can rely on the schedule and function pretty okay, yeah?

Except the problem is, RIPTA’s bus service is on the low end of frequency. Transit expert Jarrett Walker categorizes transit service based on off-peak frequency into four categories: buses every 15 minutes or less, every 30 minutes or less, every 60 minutes or less, and occasional service. If you miss those most frequent buses, no worries, because another will be along soon. If you miss the less frequent ones, you know the drill. Walk home, and tell that fantastic job or client you were really excited about that you won’t be able to make it.

So here’s a map of Providence with RIPTA routes colored according to frequency. Red is the best, then blue, then green, then orange is practically nonexistent service.

 

But look! There are lots of red lines there! Except if you notice, those red lines are mostly along limited-access highways, without much in the way of transit access to the people living next to them. I could count on one hand the corridors outside of downtown with actual frequent transit access:

  1. North Main (paragon of pedestrian friendliness that THAT is)
  2. West Broadway
  3. Cranston Street
  4. Broad
  5. Elmwood
  6. Waterman/Angell
  7. Eddy (only to Thurbers)

Okay I borrowed two fingers from the other hand. But THAT’S IT. No frequent service to RIC or PC. No frequent service to the Wards of City Council members Narducci, Ryan, Correia, Igliozzi, Hassett, or Matos, and hardly any to Councilman Zurier’s Ward 2 or Council President Aponte’s Ward 10. And really, the frequent coverage ain’t great in many other Wards; they just have one or two frequent lines running through them.

Ideally RIPTA would solve both of these problems, but of course there are budgetary constraints and an imperative to cover the whole service area with service. As Walker states in this awesome video (yes I’m a geek), there is a tension between the goal of coverage and the goal of frequency. And indeed, with the R-line and suggestions of further focus on the highest-potential routes, RIPTA is headed more in the direction of frequency than it has been historically.

But the other problem? C’mon RIPTA. We’re living in the 21st century. Get on it. Or tell us why you’re failing in this way. Do you think we don’t care? Or that you’ll look bad? We do care. You already look bad when you don’t tell us why you’re deficient in this area. Here are some links to help get you there if you’re not already on your way: GTFS-realtimeMBTA’s live-feed page. Transit Camp 2015 conference notes.

Analytics of #AskElorza Twitter Town Hall

Today from 1:00pm to 2:00pm I participated in a Twitter Town Hall with the new mayor of Providence, Jorge Elorza. The idea is, the mayor’s office announced a specific hashtag (#AskElorza) and people asked questions, appending that hashtag, and then the mayor answered them. I was curious about topical trends, so I exported and broke down the tweets that used the hashtag.

askelorza

The mayor received 141 questions during the hour, and replied to 34 of them. 3 of the questions were offered in Spanish. Here were the most common topics:

  1. Softballs (answered 6/12) e.g. “Do you have a dog?”, “How was your run yesterday?”, and “Read any good books lately?”
  2. Alternative transportation (0/10) e.g. “What will you do to make the city safe and inviting to pedestrians and bicyclists?”, “Where can the city combine road diets and stormwater management?”, and “How will you restructure the street design process to slow down cars?”
  3. Volunteer (3/9) e.g. “Where do I go if I want to help give back to the city?” or “How can my organization work with the administration?”
  4. Schools (3/8) e.g. “How can we get more of our kids going to college?”, “Any thoughts on implementing restorative practices in Providence schools?”, and “How will you support parents to speak up as their kids have about schools?”
  5. Public Safety (1/8) e.g. “There is crime! What are you doing about it??”
  6. Outreach (3/7) e.g. “Quiero saber si la página Web de la ciudad tendra mas material en español?”, “Are there plans for a constituency Twitter and mobile app similar to NotifyBoston?”, and “What will you do to improve customer service at City Hall?”
  7. Promotion (1/6) e.g. “How are you planning to promote Providence to the world?”, “How are you planning to promote tourism?”, and “How do we help the Providence Cyclocross Festival keep happening?”
  8. Potholes (1/4) e.g. “There are potholes! What are you doing about them??”
  9. Open Government (1/4) e.g. “Will more data be put up on data.providenceri.gov?”
  10. Small business (1/4) e.g. “How can we work together to make locally owned businesses thrive and compete?”
  11. Development (0/4) e.g. “Baltimore offers large tax incentives in their vacant properties, should we do the same?”
  12. Arts Festival (2/3) e.g. “What is the progress on the Arts Festival you talked about during your campaign?” and “How can residents get involved?”
  13. Chief Innovation Officer (1/3) e.g. “What, specifically, will your Chief Innovation Officer be doing?”
  14. Healthcare (0/3) e.g. “Como resolver el problema de seguro de salud que los empleadores no quieren pagar a sus empleados acortando las horas de trabajo?”
  15. Sidewalk Snow Removal (0/3) e.g. “Snow hasn’t been removed from the sidewalks! What are you doing about it??”
  16. Superman building (0/3) e.g. “What’s going on with the Superman building?”

You can read the whole conversation here.

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PVD Police Dept one of least racially representative in the country

This post originally appeared on RI Future.
PVD police

A lot of American cities have police departments that don’t proportionally represent the racial mix of residents. And Providence is one of the worst.

According to data provided by the office of the Public Safety Commissioner, the 444-officer Providence Police Department is 76.3 percent White, 11.7 percent Hispanic, 9.0 percent Black, 2.7 percent Asian or Pacific Islander, and 0.2 percent American Indian. According to the 2010 U.S. Census, the city as a whole is 37.8 percent White, 38.3 percent Hispanic, 16.1 percent Black, 6.5 percent Asian or Pacific Islander, and 1.4 percent American Indian.

That means the white portion of the PPD is 38.6 percentage points overrepresentative of the city as a whole, while the Hispanic portion is 26.5 percentage points underrepresentative, the black portion is 7.1 points underrepresentative, the Asian/P.I. portion is 3.8 points underrepresentative, and the American Indian portion is 1.2 points underrepresentative.

These numbers seem vaguely interesting without context, but in the context of other cities, they’re far more troublesome.

On October 1, data journalism blog FiveThirtyEight.com published an analysis of the 75 largest municipal police forces in the country. Providence has approximately the 90th-most officers in the country, so was not included in that analysis. The main thrust of that analysis was examining the effectiveness of residency requirements (tldr?: They actually correlate with worse representativeness). However, there is an excellent visualization putting all 75 departments side by side, ranked in order of how racially misrepresentative they are of their cities. I highly recommend checking it out.

So Providence wasn’t included in that analysis, and there are about 15 other departments that also weren’t included and have bigger departments than we do. But how do we compare to the 75 cities included in the analysis?

PVD_policeracechart

Only three of the cities FiveThirtyEight looked at have police departments worse at representing their communities than Providence. So that’s a problem.

In a statement, Providence Public Safety Commissioner Steven Paré said, “Recruiting a diverse workforce is always a priority.  We hired two recruit classes for the PFD and one recruit class for the PPD.  It was one of the most diverse classes we’ve had in our history.  Our goal is to mirror the community we serve.  The challenge is to reach out to the available workforce in the region and recruit the best candidates.”

The new class of 53 police officers was the most diverse in 20 years, with 9 Hispanic recruits and 13 other minorities. But the class itself overrepresented white Providence by 20%, and barely budged the underrepresentation of Latinos.

When it comes to recruiting new and diverse officers, Paré said he’s “battl[ing] the perception that you need to have a connection to become a police officer,” he said. “It exists in the profession.” He acknowledged the fire department “can do a better job…recruiting more women. It is always difficult to get women interested in the fire services because of the physical demands that is required.” (What, because women have trouble doing physical work? *facepalm*)

Importantly, Paré welcomes ideas from the community. “We have invited community stakeholders to become part of the process for their input, ideas and recommendations to improve how we hire police and fire,” he said. “They have been critical partners in these last 3 training academies.”

There’s racial misrepresentation to address in Providence Public Safety, but with willing leadership and the active participation of community groups, maybe we can solve the problem together.

RI_election2014_density

How blue is Rhode Island, by town

Originally posted on Rhode Island Future. They have lots of great stuff, so head over and check it out!

In the sensationally titled “Revenge of the Swamp Yankee: Democratic Disaster in South County,” Will Collette argued emotionally that despite statewide wins for Democrats in Rhode Island two weeks ago, South County was a sad place for the party. He makes a strong case that local South County races, through low turnout and Republican money, had a night more like the rest of the country than the rest of Rhode Island.

Will focuses on General Assembly and Town Council races, but his post made me wonder how different towns around Rhode Island voted compared to the state averages. So I dug into the numbers for statewide races. Here’s what I came up with:

Democratic Lean by Town Population

RI_election2014

Democratic Lean by Town Density

RI_election2014_density

statewide election results_small

This is a little confusing; here’s what I did:

  1. I looked up what percentage of the votes in each town the Democrats and Republicans for each statewide office received.
  2. I subtracted the GOP candidate’s percentage from the Democrat’s for each town, giving the percentage margin the Democrats won (or didn’t) by.
  3. I then averaged together the margins for each statewide race, roughly giving each town’s Democratic lean.
  4. I then subtracted the average statewide Democratic lean from each of those town leans, giving us an idea of how each town compares to Rhode Island as a whole.

Those are the numbers you see above. Here’s my spreadsheet. A few observations:

  • Hardly anyone lives in New Shoreham. But we already knew Block Island isn’t a population hub. (These population numbers are from Wikipedia and could be wrong.)
  • There’s a clear trend of the denser and more populous cities voting more for Democrats than less populous towns. I ran the correlations and it’s 0.55 for population and 0.82 for density. Both are reasonably strong.
  • Imagine the vaguely logarithmic trendline that would best fit these points. For the density graph the formula for that trendline would be y = 0.084*ln(x) - 0.6147. It’s in relation to that trendline that I’ve made the map at right. Gray towns are those that voted about how you’d expect based on their density, blue towns voted more Democratic than density would suggest while red towns voted less Democratic.
  • Remember this is one point in time, November 4, 2014. It can’t tell us a lot about how things are changing or how all those people who didn’t turn out would vote if they did.

So at the end of the day, what does this tell us? Municipalities with higher population & density tend to vote for Democrats more than towns with lower populations. This isn’t just true in Rhode Island, it’s true across the country. But what is interesting here is how different areas of the state deviate from that implied trendline.

PVD racial geography

Providence Racial Geography

Racial geography really interests me. I think too often white people steer clear of neighborhoods where mostly people of color live due to a feeling that those neighborhoods are “unsafe” when really we’re just being accidentally racist. I think it’s important to be aware of where people of different races live so we don’t accidentally prejudice services, investments, or attention to white neighborhoods while the neighborhoods of people of color suffer.

To that end, here is a map I made using 2010 Census block-level data. It shows which racial group made up the plurality of residents of that block (i.e. the biggest group, e.g. 38% – 33% – 25% – 4% even though it’s not a majority). A few notes:

  • I want to also include indicators on this map of how big a plurality each block is, as well as the relative population of each block.
  • The average population of the census blocks in Providence is about 75 people, the median is about 50.
  • Remember that this is from 2010, and we’re almost halfway to the next decennial Census. It’s old data, but it’s precise data.
  • Providence has sizable Cape Verdean and West African populations, and I’m not sure how they present in this data.
  • Furthermore, there are distinctions between Irish, Italian, and hipster white Providence residents, as well as between Dominican, Guatemalan, Puerto Rican, and other Hispanic residents. These distinctions are relevant, but not captured in this data. I would love to capture them in future maps.
  • Also, race is a social construct. My interest in studying it is mainly to fight racism.

PVD racial geography

Vote Margin by Precinct

Elorza won throughout Providence

It was a bad night for Democrats nationally, but a good night in Rhode Island. I was working most closely on the mayoral campaign, doing data analysis and managing the website for the Jorge Elorza campaign.

I was a little disappointed by the media narrative about Elorza’s victory, though, which focused more on the election as a referendum on Cianci, and the East Side as kingmaker. While those factors were certainly a piece of what happened, Jorge Elorza was a great candidate, and many parts of Providence contributed to his victory.

Campaign status

We can see in this map based on precinct-level results from the RI Secretary of State’s website that while the East Side went strongly for Elorza and was crucial to his victory, so did a wide swath of the rest of Providence. Big pieces of the West End, Elmwood, and Reservoir went for Elorza by 10-20 percentage points. And Federal Hill, formerly a bastion of the Italian-American community that gave Cianci a lot of his power, went to Elorza, as did parts of Smith Hill, Valley, Olneyville, and Hartford.

Outside of his strongest areas of support in the northern and eastern neighborhoods of the city, Cianci really didn’t have very much support. He won Upper South Providence by a healthy margin, and Washington Park. But the real narrative of this race should be, as with the topline numbers, it was a close race, and both candidates won about half the city, splitting areas outside their bases rather evenly.

I hope to have more analysis at a later time, but now I need to get ready for the Providence Symposium, which I’ve been working on for the Providence Preservation Society for several months and begins tomorrow night. You should go!

Update Nov 10 @ 5:00pm

Thanks to Dan McGowan at WPRI, I got the post-mail-ballot precinct totals. Also, Andy Grover reminded me that there are some precincts that just don’t have many people in them, so they shouldn’t necessarily be shown on the same scale as densely populated places. Finally, Frymaster was uncertain about these neighborhood boundaries, so you might be interested to know that these are the official neighborhood boundaries that the city uses.

Mayoral results